Most people non familiar with Bitcoin thinks that there its has not smart contracts capabilities, and that is incorrect, there are smart contract capabilities, and despite limited in comparison with other blockchain networks, those capabilities are evolving slowly but surely.

The support for smart contracts is done through its scripting language, Script, which allows developers to create complex conditions for transactions.

What can you do with Script?

1. time locks
2. multi-signature requirements
3. other custom logic

opcodes like OP_CHECKLOCKTIMEVERIFY (CLTV) and OP_CHECKSEQUENCEVERIFY (CSV) are used to build more sophisticated smart contracts, these opcodes enable features such as the Lightning Network, a key scaling solution for Bitcoin

back in 2021, the ***Taproot ***upgrade introduced Pay-to-Taproot (P2TR), in summary allows for more private and efficient smart contracts, in that soft fork more was added, in addition to Taproot, we got as well Schnorr signatures, which enables multiple signatures to be aggregated into a single signature, improving scalability and privacy and MAST (Merklized Abstract Syntax Trees) which reduces the size of complex smart contracts, making them more efficient, as an added value, this efficiency reduces the cost of transactions.

The ***Taproot ***upgrade has laid the foundation for the development of more sophisticated smart contracts on the Bitcoin network, and the use of covenants is an important part of this development.

What is Bitcoin Covenants?

It is a BIP (Bitcoin Improvement Proposal), BIP-347, assigned on April 24, 2024, which marks the first step towards reintroducing functionality removed from Bitcoin by its creator Satoshi Nakamoto in 2010. This proposal aims to bring smart contract functionality to Bitcoin as we see in other EVM networks.

The proposal’s developers authors names are Ethan Heilman and Armin Sabouri, now the community will debate its merits.

Here the link, in case you are curious:

https://github.com/bitcoin/bips/blob/master/bip-0347.mediawiki

It is worth to read the motivation section of the BIP, which reads:

“Bitcoin Tapscript lacks a general purpose way of combining objects on the stack, restricting the expressiveness and power of Tapscript. This prevents, among many other things, the ability to construct and evaluate merkle trees and other hashed data structures in Tapscript. OP_CAT, by adding a general purpose way to concatenate stack values, would overcome this limitation and greatly increase the functionality of Tapscript.

OP_CAT aims to expand the toolbox of the tapscript developer with a simple, modular, and useful opcode in the spirit of Unix. To demonstrate the usefulness of OP_CAT below we provide a non-exhaustive list of some use cases that OP_CAT would enable:

Bitstream, a protocol for the atomic swap (fair exchange) of bitcoins for decryption keys, that enables decentralized file hosting systems paid in Bitcoin. While such swaps are currently possible on Bitcoin without OP_CAT, they require the use of complex and computationally expensive Verifiable Computation cryptographic techniques. OP_CAT would remove this requirement on Verifiable Computation, making such protocols far more practical to build in Bitcoin.

Tree signatures provide a multisignature script whose size can be logarithmic in the number of public keys and can encode spend conditions beyond n-of-m. For instance a transaction less than 1KB in size could support tree signatures with up to 4,294,967,296 public keys. This also enables generalized logical spend conditions.

Post-Quantum Lamport signatures in Bitcoin transactions. Lamport signatures merely require the ability to hash and concatenate values on the stack. [4] It has been proposed that if ECDSA is broken or a powerful computer was on the horizon, there might be an effort to protect ownership of bitcoins by allowing people to mark their taproot outputs as "script-path only" and then move their coins into such outputs with a leaf in the script tree requiring a Lamport signature. It is an open question if a tapscript commitment would preserve the quantum resistance of Lamport signatures. Beyond this question, the use of Lamport Signatures in taproot outputs is unlikely to be quantum resistant even if the script spend-path is made quantum resistant. This is because taproot outputs can also be spent with a key. An attacker with a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could bypass the taproot script spend-path by finding the discrete log of the taproot output and thus spending the output using the key spend-path. The use of "Nothing Up My Sleeve" (NUMS) points as described in BIP-341 to disable the key spend-path does not disable the key spend-path against a quantum attacker as NUMS relies on the hardness of finding discrete logs. We are not aware of any mechanism which could disable the key spend-path in a taproot output without a soft-fork change to taproot.

Non-equivocation contracts in tapscript provide a mechanism to punish equivocation/double spending in Bitcoin payment channels. OP_CAT enables this by enforcing rules on the spending transaction's nonce. The capability is a useful building block for payment channels and other Bitcoin protocols.

Vaults [6] which are a specialized covenant that allows a user to block a malicious party who has compromised the user's secret key from stealing the funds in that output. As shown in OP_CAT is sufficient to build vaults in Bitcoin.

Replicating CheckSigFromStack which would allow the creation of simple covenants and other advanced contracts without having to pre-sign spending transactions, possibly reducing complexity and the amount of data that needs to be stored. Originally shown to work with Schnorr signatures, this result has been extended to ECDSA signatures.

OP_CAT was available in early versions of Bitcoin. In 2010, a single commit disabled OP_CAT, along with another 15 opcodes. Folklore states that OP_CAT was removed in this commit because it enabled the construction of a script whose evaluation could have memory usage exponential in the size of the script. For example, a script that pushed a 1-byte value on the stack and then repeated the opcodes OP_DUP, OP_CAT 40 times would result in a stack element whose size was greater than 1 terabyte assuming no maximum stack element size. As Bitcoin at that time had a maximum stack element size of 5000 bytes, the effect of this expansion was limited to 5000 bytes. This is no longer an issue because tapscript enforces a maximum stack element size of 520 bytes.”

The last update of the BIP was done on Sep. 8 2024 by Ethan Heilman

Controversy

The controversy revolves around two main camps:

1. Those who want to preserve Bitcoin’s network for monetary transactions only, arguing that adding smart contract capabilities could introduce risks and complexity.
2. Others who advocate for expanding Bitcoin’s capabilities to support a wider range of applications, seeing OP_CAT as a step towards enhancing the network’s utility.

Final Thoughts

Bitcoin have done what no other asset have done in history, neither gold, its success is clear, and now, that BlackRock is involved, “miraculously”, corporations and governments are getting on board and Bitcoin is not anymore only for criminals or “rat poison” or “is going to zero”.

But as all tech, improvements are important, if those improvements are done to secure more the network and to make it more robust, there will be little to none controversy, however, when those changes are aiming at adding new shinning features that would change Bitcoin into a network with similar features as Ethereum in terms of contracts that requires attention and debate, few questions come to mind:

1. How will that change affect the security of the network?
2. How that change will affect the blockchain usage?
3. What is the projected impact over the fees per transaction if this change is approved?
4. Will the impact create pressure for the block size increase discussion to come back to the table and with it a second war?

Looking into Ethan Heilman work and contribution to the Bitcoin ecosystem, I am inclined to believe that he has considered most of those questions.

Looking forward to observe the evolution of this proposal.

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Like and share!

Last but not least, the following link is an unstoppable domain, it will open a page in which you can perform an anonymous contribution to support my work:

https://rodswallet.unstoppable/

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A Step Towards Enhanced Transaction Privacy in Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Silent Payments, also known as BIP352[^1], is a proposed improvement to Bitcoin’s payment system that has been gaining traction for its potential to bolster transaction privacy in Layer 1.

In simple terms, Silent Payments enables users to:

• Generate a single, reusable static address for receiving payments, as a business this is a game changer since it make it possible to proceed with the proper financial operational security (OpSec).

• Send and receive bitcoins without disclosing transaction details to third parties, such as the person or business you pay to, cybercriminals and chain analysis companies that sell that data to anyone willing to pay for it, that will include cybercriminals or simply; if you are a business; your competitors… When you use Silent Payments, only the sender and the receiver can connect it checking the on chain activity.

• Without Silent Payments, if you are a non profit organization, public fund raiser, independent journalist, or business you needed support to setup a proper infrastructure to handle the donations or payments in a private manner. With Silent Payments, you post in your web site a single address in text format or as a QR code to receive donations or payments for goods, that simple.

Can I Use Silent Payments Already?

Yes, but it is currently only available through select wallets that have implemented the feature. Users must have compatible wallets and ensure that both parties involved in the transaction have Silent Payments enabled. Currently, leading wallets like Blue Wallet, and others like Cake Wallet and BitBox has adopted the feature. It's essential to verify compatibility before making transactions.

Current wallets known to support it as of writing this article:

• BlueWallet -- Only for sending
• Cake Wallet -- Send, receive, Privacy Preserving Scanning
• Silentium -- Proof of concept, good for testing
• BitBox -- Only for sending

Summarizing:

PROS:

• Enhanced Privacy
• Increased Security
• Improved User Experience
• Cheap and seamless implementation for non profit organization, fund raisers and businesses alike.

CONS:

• None

Final Thoughts

As Bitcoin continues to evolve, Silent Payments will play a significant role in enhancing transaction privacy and security. The potential benefits are undeniable and substantial.

In the near future, we can expect wider adoption and implementation of Silent Payments as more wallets and exchanges embrace this groundbreaking feature. Looking forward to see Phoenix, Sparrow, Ashigaru[^2] and Electrum adoption.

I will suggest all of us start contacting in all social networks the wallets we us and encourage them to implement Silent Payments

Here the contact info for some of them:

• Phoenix: https://twitter.com/PhoenixWallet
• Ashigaru: contact@ashigaru.rs (if you want a response, send your email signed with PGP)
• Sparrow Wallet: https://twitter.com/SparrowWallet, https://t.me/SparrowWallet
• Electrum: https://twitter.com/ElectrumWallet

[^1]: Here the link to the BIP352: https://bips.dev/352/
[^2]: Ashigaru is a fork of Samurai Wallet performed by anonymous developers (IMO, all Bitcoin related development should be anonymous, to protect the project from nefarious players, unfortunately, most developers in the arena choose to be “public” figures, hence, becoming a target of current and potential Bitcoin enemies and a weak link for the ecosystem)
Ashigaru in Japanese means “light feet” (translated as foot soldiers or peasants)

Nowadays, businesses and individuals are adopting Bitcoin as a method of payment. It's no surprise, given the security, speed, and cost-efficiency associated with it, specially using the LN. However, despite the numerous advantages, Bitcoin still faces challenges in terms of privacy, fees, and scalability.

What is ARK?

A Layer 2 protocol for Bitcoin designed to solve some of the Bitcoin Network challenges, to improve its efficiency, security and scalability. The protocol aims to enhance the functionality of Bitcoin by addressing its current limitations by using a shared UTXO model that enables anonymous, off-chain payments through an untrusted intermediary called the Ark Service Provider (ASP). ASPs are always-on servers that provide liquidity to the network, similar to how Lightning service providers work but without the time consuming opening and close and balancing of channels.

Interoperability with the Lighting Network?

Ark will function as a liquidity network that operates like Lightning, but without introducing liquidity constraints or a direct link between the sender and receiver. It uses virtual UTXOs, to enable anonymous, scalable, off-chain payments. ASPs provide liquidity to the network and charge fees for their services.

ARK will address key issues with deploying capital into the Lightning Network providing a layer that settles transactions without the requirement for a specific infrastructure to remain online, as is the case with Lightning, while still providing assurances of the private custody of funds. How:

• Ark can interoperate with Lightning by attaching HTLCs (Hashed Timelock Contracts) and PTLCs (Point Time Locked Contracts) to a pool transaction. Attached HTLCs live under another shared UTXO called the HTLCs outputs, which expires after four-weeks.
• Ark service providers forward HTLCs to the broader Lightning Network the moment after HTLCs are attached to a pool transaction. This requires Ark service providers to run routing nodes on the Lightning Network with well-established outgoing channels. Ark users can also get paid from Lightning using HTLC-nested vTXOs.

Last but not least, the Ark Service Provider will serve not only as a liquidity provider but as a Coin-Join coordinator and a Lightning service provider.

How does ARK compares with the Lighting Network?

Conclusion

The ARK protocol is an exciting development, addressing many of the challenges faced by Bitcoin Network today. ARK promises to enhance, above all, privacy and scalability, making it a valuable addition to the rapidly growing Bitcoin ecosystem.

_

Sources and recommended watching and reading:

• Ark Whiteboard Masterclass with Burak & Robin - MUST WATCH
• ArkPillMe
• GitHub
• Community Telegram Channel
• ARK video from Bitcoin Miami 2023
• ARK presentation from Bitcoin Miami 2023

Is an asset that tracks the price of Bitcoin.

Why is it considered a game changer?

Institutional investors and wealthy individuals, using large investment firms like Blackrock, Fidelity or Ark among others, will be able to acquire the asset with low risk, since these investment firms are highly regulated. These investors have above 15 trillion dollars invested in these large firms and therefore, it is expected that these firms will allocate at least 1% of their portfolios to it. That will be mean a minimum of $150 billions into Bitcoin, which is remarkable considering the current market cap of the asset is currently $570 billion.

An injection of minimum $150 billions translates in a huge demand for Bitcoin with massive potential for price appreciation.

Current mayor players

Until now, very few large institutions have acquired Bitcoin, examples are Tesla Inc (Nasdaq: TSLA) and Microstrategy (Nasdaq: MSTR), which wrote a document labeled "A summary of some of the key considerations for corporations to keep in mind when investing in bitcoin". The link to the document:

https://www.microstrategy.com/en/bitcoin/documents/key-considerations-for-corporate-investment-in-bitcoin

Let's check the math

Amount of Bitcoins mined per day:

• Bitcoins mined per block: 6.25

• Time in minutes to mine one block (approx): 10

• Minutes in one day: 1440

• Blocks mined per day: 144 -> (1440 / 10 = 144)

• Bitcoins mined per day: 900 -> ( 144 x 6.25 = 900)

After the halving, since the Bitcoins mined per block will be reduced to 3.125, we will only have 450 mined per day.

Bitcoins available for trading:

• Around 4 million across exchanges
• 900 per day injected in the market

Assumptions

• Miners are selling all 900 freshly mined Bitcoins
• Financial institutions will allocate at least 1% of their portfolio into Bitcoin

Assuming Miners sell all 900 every day (which is worst case scenario), this means, that in order for the price of Bitcoin to keep the current price (around $29.4K as I write this article), $26.5 millions are needed in the market to buy those 900 fresh mined every day, $795 million per month, $9.54 billion per year.

Projections in price appreciation

Bear in mind that the projection can't be linear since there are many additional variables to factor in, specially qualitative non quantifiable ones as potential financial crisis, absurd regulations, more ETF delays, governments corruption, wars, pandemics, etc...

In terms of price appreciation, a 15X is plausible, which would rocket the price of Bitcoin to around $441K as soon as the $150 billion are deployed to acquire it.

Now, consider that this is worst case scenario and valid only until the end of this halving (the amount of mined Bitcoin per day will be reduced by half after it), next one is around the end of April 2024.

What happens with the numbers after the Halving?

After the halving, with the current amount of financial energy injected into Bitcoin ($26.5 million), the price would potentially double to around $58.8K, and if 1% of the investment companies applying for an ETF is injected, the math take the potential price of Bitcoin to $882K as soon as that 1% is deployed.

Time frame for price appreciation?

Unknown, but I would assume before the end of 2024, Why? Because the ETFs are being yet again delayed for Blackrock and Fidelity until December 2023 by the SEC (Security Exchange Commission) in USA.

But USA is not the only country where large Investment Companies are applying for ETFs, it is true that the two largest ones are in USA, but there are many more that combined across the world would add up to a massive additional amount of capital injected into Bitcoin.

The first ETF to go public will be in Europe

Jacobi Asset Management, issuer of an equity structure for digital assets in Europe with the first Bitcoin ETF, with a total portfolio of approx. $4.8 billion. Assuming 1% (worst scenario) of its portfolio will be deployed into Bitcoin, additional $48 million would be injected. The launch of this ETF was "July 2023", I will assume this capital will be injected between August and December 2023.

Professional investors can already let them know of their interest in their web site:

https://jacobiam.com/jacobi-ft-wilshire-bitcoin-etf/

Long term impact?

We can divide the long term impact into two arenas:

• Asset appreciation
• Attempts to control the asset

Long terms asset appreciation

As explained before, the more capital is deployed into the asset, and the more time passes, the more valuable and scarce it becomes (one halving every 4 years) and therefore, Bitcoin will continue to appreciate over time by "a lot".

Extrapolate the financial institutions portfolio investment to 5% of 15 trillion dollars, then to 10% and so on. Considering that Bitcoin is the best asset in terms of appreciation of the last 10 years, it is plausible that institutional investors will be eager to put more than 1% of their portfolios into Bitcoin, I would assume that 5% for the most conservative and 20% for the most aggressive will be logical.

You do the math, you will get numbers that will explain why so many financial analyst come with such a high numbers in their predictions of the future price of Bitcoin.

Attempts to control the asset in the long term

Recently I read a post from Chris Blec in X, his post was quite interesting, it reads "Pfizer convinced billions of people to inject a mysterious chemical into their body multiple times but you don't think Blackrock can convince normies that their fork is the real Bitcoin?"

A provocative post which opens the door for debate, one that I am certain is being discussed for years already close doors among the Bitcoin community.

Potential Attack vectors

• Forking Bitcoin into POS: Blackrock or a union of Investment corporations could influence with their resources some key developers and miners to fork Bitcoin into a PoS (Proof of Stake) chain, basically centralizing and controlling Bitcoin. A fork creates a new chain and the users will decide which chain is Bitcoin, users decide by changing their Node into the new chain or not, one Node, one Vote.
• Forking Bitcoin to reduce the block time to 1 minute: With the excuse to reduce the validation transaction time. This will imply many changes that will lead to mining 9000 per day instead of the 900 as of today, reducing the scarcity by increasing the offer and therefore reducing the price
• Forking Bitcoin to increase the block size: This was attempted before, Jonathan Bier in his book The Blocksize War: The battle over who controls Bitcoin’s protocol rules does a decent job explaining the depths of the attack. But in summary leads to centralization of control of the network

Countermeasures

• Education: In my opinion, education is key, those investment funds manage money from wealthy investors, if those investors understand the ethos of Bitcoin and why the asset is so scarce and valuable, they will fight back together with the individual investors for those changes not to be pedaled into the chain. At the end, greed is a very strong motivator and Satoshi understood that perfectly and therefore it is accounted for in the design.

• Awareness: A considerable percentage of the Bitcoin investors are well informed and therefore, fear can't be use as a trigger, as it was the case of the pharmaceuticals and their experimental drugs, the investment companies could use their resources to create campaigns pushing their narrative, but the community will see through that and counter it in the social networks quite fast, in my opinion, in the age of information, the legacy MSM (Main Stream Media) can't easily steer the Bitcoin ecosystem opinion as they could have done with the population up to the 90s, now is a real challenge for them. Proof of that is that they have been fighting Bitcoin with everything they got until now. They short it, talk trash it as much as they could in the legacy MSM, call it rat poison, stated that it will go to zero (while secretly buying it...) and after all that, now they are lining up to buy it and speaking highly of the asset.

• Run your own Node: Bitcoin has endured 14 years of attacks and survived thanks to the community and investors, we need to stay vigilant and protect it, run at least one Node at home, remember, one Node, one Vote.

Can you think of additional countermeasures?

originally posted at https://stacker.news/items/226279

Bitaxe is an open source ASIC (Application-Specific Integrated Circuit) Bitcoin miner that has been making waves in the cryptocurrency community. This innovative project aims to empower miners at every level with powerful, efficient, and low-cost mining solutions.

It is a fully open source ASIC Bitcoin miner developed by Skot9000, an advocate for open-source innovation in the Bitcoin space.

With all software and hardware specs available on GitHub, this project aims to provide miners with a transparent and accessible platform for Bitcoin mining.

Pros

1. Open Source:
   The Bitaxe is fully open source, allowing users to access and modify its source code, hardware designs, and build gerbers for PCB ordering.

2. Low Cost:
   Bitaxe offers low-cost solutions for miners, making it an attractive option for those looking to enter the world of Bitcoin mining without breaking the bank.

3. Efficient:
   The Bitaxe series is designed to be power-efficient, utilizing either the Bitmain BM1387 or BM1397 ASICs for SHA256 hashing.

Cons

1. Technical Complexity: Being an open-source project, users are required to be technically savvy to set up and maintain the miner, which could pose challenges for those without experience.

2. Bricking Potential:
   Like any complex technology, there is a risk of bricking (rendering the device unusable) the Bitaxe if not handled properly.

Summary

The Bitaxe represents an exciting development in the world of Bitcoin mining, offering a low cost, efficient, and open-source solution for miners. While it may present some challenges for users who are new to the technology or lack technical expertise, the potential benefits far outweigh these drawbacks. As the project continues to evolve and gain traction, we can expect to see further improvements in performance, accessibility, and innovation within the Bitcoin mining landscape.

Where can I get more information

Go to their Github page:
https://github.com/skot/bitaxe

originally posted at https://stacker.news/items/659572

It would be nice if more Bitcoiners , specially the ones with channels start sharing as well in Odysee or other platforms less centralized and totalitarian...

#BTC
#Bitcoin
#Odysee
#Nostr

Most people call it "Hardware Wallet", which is inaccurate since it is not a wallet, it is a "Seed Signer"

Basically it is an electronic device with a simple user interface which guides you to introduce your seed words, once configured, you will use it in combination with your Bitcoin Wallet to sign transactions.

How does it works?

Once you are fully setup, if you try to send funds with your Bitcoin Wallet, you will be prompted to sign the transaction with your "Seed Signer", it will prompt you to introduce a PIN or a password or use a bio-metric identification, once you do so, the transaction will be broadcasted, without it, you will only be able to receive, not to send.

Are Seed Signers safe?

The answer is yes, but some more than others, you have to do your homework and choose wisely, here is a check list. I suggest you follow it before buying one:

• Uses a Chip Secure Element (SE), which is a chip that is protected from unauthorized access and stores confidential and cryptographic data
• It is Air Gap, which means that is physically isolated from unsecured networks, no Bluetooth, no WiFi, no USB connector. Only way to add information is via the user interface and for OS upgrades, a SSD card
• The OS in the device is FOSS (Free and Open Source Software)
• If the company offers a Bitcoin Wallet with the device, it should be as well FOSS
• It is build only for Bitcoin, no alt coins development in their products
• You can acquire the product directly from the company
• You can acquire the product with Bitcoin
• The company will agree to deliver to a PO-BOX or similar
• In case you pay the Seed Signer with a non secure methods which give away your full name and address, ensure that the company has a policy of deleting the client records after a short period of time to ensure your safety. If they get hacked, cyber criminals will know your name and address and probably target you

Any Recommendations?

I will suggest you do your own research and do not trust, verify. I am not affiliated or receive any income from any of the products mentioned below...

My favorites so far (yes, they check all the boxes I mentioned):

• "Passport" from Foundation (link: https://foundationdevices.com/ )
• "COLCARD" from Coinkite (link: https://coldcard.com/ )

If you known of any "Seed Signer" that passes the check list above and I didn't include it, please let me know in the comments, always looking forward to test new products.

Note: Important to understand that devices built with Raspberry Pi don't qualify since they do not pass the Chip SE

It is plausible that soon after the next presidential election this next November 2024, independently of who wins, USA may have to deal with a new black swan event, of course, pure speculation, it seems many dooms day analysts are calling for it and even some of them, those that are normally bullish like Albert Edwards (A global strategist at Societe Generale) or Matt Gertken (Chief geopolitical strategist at BCA Research) are considering the possibility.

If it happens, How would it affect Bitcoin price?

Historically, Bitcoin has reacted positively to economic turmoil, often being seen as a safe haven, therefore, IMO, it could drive additional demand for it, potentially increasing its value exponentially.

Why not Gold but Bitcoin?

IMO, Bitcoin today has way more chances than ever before to gain terrain over Gold as safe haven, Gold is a $10T MC, Bitcoin is $1.34T MC.

Reasoning:

• Demographics:
  The X generation is taking over the BB generation, billions of dollars are moving to a generation that is quite aware of Bitcoin and could move some of the assets currently in Gold by their late parents into Bitcoin.

• Validation:
  Bitcoin have been demonized for a long time by most of the banksters and politicians in their pockets. The tune is changing and we have a presidential candidate with chances to win pro Bitcoin as well as his chosen partner running for VP. The same candidate has spoken opening of removing the current head of the SEC. All of this means that regulation will change further positively in favor of Bitcoin investors since it validates further Bitcoin as a safe haven.

• Adoption:
  The adoption of Bitcoin is currently quite small. In our Bitcoin world we tend to think is larger, but, the company Chainanalysis reported in their 2023 Global Crypto Adoption Index that only 1.83% of the worldwide population own cryptocurrencies, but it does not break down this figure by specific cryptocurrency, such as Bitcoin. Other sources report that the adoption is closer to 13% for all crypto, which is quite a jump from 1.83% but considering that Chainanalysis is a well funded company exclusively dedicated to the crypto industry lets go with that number. Very low.
  Now, considering that the banksters are joining the party, soon, the vast majority of the population will have access to the asset, not only via ETF, but like a stock, it will be custodial, it will be on the bank apps, very similar to Coinbase but accessible to everyone, including all generations and independently of the technical level. As internet did, it will move from the tech savvy to the tech enthusiasts and last but not least (we are getting there) to the whole population.

Summary
My opinion is that we moon in a black swan scenario. Perhaps the uncertainty will create a dip at first, but the smart money will move, as it always does, to safe havens, and Bitcoin has become one of them.

What do you think? Did I miss something?

Number 1 : Elon Musk

Reasoning:
Supporting a meme coin and trolling the ecosystem. Trying to create the american wechat and portraying himself as a protector of freedom of speech. Admired and loved by millions...

Potential impact:
High, he may support a shitcoin as solana or worst, create his own with the support of deep pockets and the government. Considering that we are still early and millions around the world still see #Bitcoin as a risk asset or worst, creating one in X will have immediate use case and challenge p2p cash use case from the get go, where Meta failed X may succeed...

Number 2: Jack Dorsey

Reasoning:
Known for his history as Twitter CEO during the crusade against freedom of speech, cancelation of critical thinkers and even a president of USA, the behavior of Twitter was reprehensible while Jack was the CEO, I never thought that a company could behave that way and survive and yet... Unreal and zero legal accountability, twitter basically gaslighted a large amount of the population, supported political propaganda to one party with no neutrality, supported an experimental drug that is still harming people and didnt let experts and doctors to debate and discuss and not one of those thugs blocking accounts and censoring critical thinkers was made accountable, eye opening in many ways for those that at that moment still believed that USA respected freedom of speech...
Recently supported a mining pool that censors whirlpool from Samourai wallet, old habits die hard I guess...
And the cherry of the pie, now funding FiatJaf whom was looking for funding to spam Ethereum and Monero networks to make them unusable so more funds will move to Bitcoin and LN... This project and idea from the getgo is a no no, you may not like another project but to spam it intentionally should be illegal, and it is being done, shamelessly...

Potential impact:
Very high, already inside the community, a record of bad actions, pro censorship, vast resources, head of Cash App, admired by most in the community and hence able to missguide the community into a path that could eventually make Bitcoin a failure of a project in the future with the proposal of a hard fork introducing additional censorship and less privacy in one way or another.

Number 3: Blackrock

Reasoning:
No need to explain much, they join the train and... it is only logical , after so much hate and media propaganda against Bitcoin, that they did so to fight the fight from inside trying to affect it and transform it into something else , just speculation, time will say. Check my article on ETFs

Potential Impact:
Super Nova. As I explain in my article of ETFs, they have the resources to attempt to change the direction of Bitcoin development for it to become something else, even kill it as a store of value. They have a large stake in some of the largest mining farms as well... Do the math, it looks like a hostile take over and that may not end well. Again, just my opinion, but, if history and patterns teach us leasons, not a good look...
Activist Critical Thinkers in the space are needed, #Bitcoin for many years has been a space with many of them, the list was long, but little by little I observe a change, produced by time+age+money, those libertarians are now; most of them; retired millionaires, or enterpreuners absorbed by the fiat system and therefore have changed their tune. I thought we will have a new generation, motivated, smarter, ready to take over, but all I see, with few exceptions in the NOSTR side of the equation, is more corporate fiat system acolytes.

Stay humble says someone, never more important...
What are your thoughts?
Share your top 3 current most dangerous threats to the Bitcoin ecosystem...

Many cyber security advisors and CEOs of companies that offer security products will tell you that the battle is lost, that, for example, if you don't buy an air gap device your private keys are not secure.... That, if you used your computer instead to write the seed words in a piece of paper and then put them in a piece of metal, you will be hacked and most probably you are doomed....

IMO and experience, it is an exaggeration...

If all the fear mongering being pedaled by the cyber security enthusiasts and experts was true, oh well, with very few exceptions, we all will be drained of our funds in banks (most neither have a decent 2FA - still working with SMS for crying out-loud...), self custody wallets, etc... Even the Bitcoin blockchain encryption will be broken by "quantum computers"... oh and AI will be used by hackers to hack you as well... Just ignore the noise...

The unpopular opinion

IMO, basic IT hygiene is enough to keep the malware, viruses and therefore, the cyber criminals away.

And the tools they tell you that are not enough and therefore, you are powerless, actually are quite helpful, keep using them, firewalls, VPNs, TOR, Linux Whirpool, etc.

Sugestions

Do your homework, acquiring cyber security skills needs reading, get on it, few tips:

1. Learn how to verify a software security key or SHA256 before running it in your laptop or mobile if an apk. If on Microsoft, if the software you want to install does not have a .msi version (already signed by Microsoft), the .exe extension file needs to be verified, learn how, this is paramount, no matter the application, same with Linux. If the app does not offer it, do not install it, contact the developer and demand it, if no dice, forget it, look for an alternative.
2. Use a VPN on your home router, yes, even if you acquire cyber security knowledge and apply it to your mobile and laptop, if you do not live alone, every other member of your family is a weak link that can affect you. Acquire a router that supports a VPN that does not require to know your identity to pay for the service and accepts Bitcoin as payment (otherwise do not use it, no matter how good you think it is, if free avoid, you are the product and therefore, you are better without one that with one free). As an additional measure, keep your laptop, PC and mobile with another VPN, a different service, you will be with a double VPN while at home and with one while in the road. In the past the throughput will be considerably reduced to a point of being too slow, nowadays, you will be fine.
3. Use a router with a decent firewall and advertising guard like features, Adguard or Pi-Hole (learn to configure and to add community supported lists) , that will keep your home browsing experience safer and faster.
4. If you do banking and Bitcoin with your mobile phone, consider having two mobiles, one left at home secured. Carry with you a mobile for your social needs and small payments in fiat or Bitcoin, if you loose your phone or you get robed, you will sleep better....
5. If you insist on using debit cards instead of credit cards, keep the account with the debit card limited to your needs when you go out. A bit of a pain but do not use your savings account, if you lose the wallet you are screwed and there is no recurse with a debit card.... (or use credit cards and you have the option to recover the funds in case is needed)
6. If you have stacked a considerable amount in Bitcoin and want to be sufficiently safe, consider an air gap seed signer, if you do not trust yourself, consider a service with no KYC, contrary to what many believe, there are some, recently I learn that CASA is one of them, probably there are others, do your homework. You keep one or two private keys and the company keeps another one, to remove the funds you need 2 of 3 and it has built in time locks you can set up.
7. Avoid Microsoft and Google and Apple clouds, those are honey pots often targeted, if they get hacked the companies most probably will neither inform the clients or if they do it would be much after the incident, use other private services highly encrypted end to end, preferably FOSS, and do not upload your data unencrypted, yes, encrypt it before uploading if it is valuable information, it is a backup of data and you want it safe, if it is not in your hands, best to encrypt it, even if the company claim it is E2E encrypted, you can't be sure....

Summary

Each person is different, you need to sleep good at night knowing your cyber security is sufficient and therefore your data and funds are safe. Do the homework, read, study, acquire the skills and tools and use them properly, cyber security is not convenient, but in the age of information, it is a must to protect your family and your wealth.

If you like my work and would like to support me:

Some believe there is a fight between Capitalism and Liberalism...

Some believe that those fights are nothing but distractions to keep the population from focusing their attention on the real issues....

In my opinion, those ideologies are mutating and merging into Authoritarianism.

Censoring have become so common that private companies in the USA have gone to the extreme to censor and cancel intellectuals, journalist, PhD's, MD’s, scientist and even a democratically elected president when they speak against the narrative supported by that company, the globes are off and the fight is now in the open between corporations interests, the same companies who have in their pockets the political apparatus and the judicial power of the countries in which they operate.

Meanwhile, the majority of those who align themselves with one of the three ideologies, are fighting the others as if they where the owners of truth, censoring each other, sad to watch and ironic, in most cases...

The Censoring Age

Once upon a time we used to debate, adding value to the society while doing so, now is just an unintelligent fight with weak arguments and in many cases incredibly absurd, very rapidly the conversation turns into insulting, dismissing the other party with no arguments and even censoring if against of the narrative of the platform landlords. Surreal if you think about it.

If you are a critical thinker, you may have theories, but you have to be scratching your head trying to find out How we got here?, By design? Or just a product of our own technological development oriented to profit and not the improvement of our health and social wealth fare. Perhaps the latest...

Does it matter to know how? I believe it does because learning from those errors we could start building a better society one step at the time so in two or three generations we could have the required base to build a more adequate social construct. Naive, but it would be nice.

The Failed Bitcoin Solution

I am of the opinion that we will not be able to obtain a more adequate social construct until we manage to separate the state from the money, hence the statement, fix the money, fix the world...

We are failing badly. Bitcoin was a tool to achieve that, it is failing miserably, it become a store of value, a very profitable one, an excellent investment, it was hard for the system to beat it, but despite of its incompetent officials, the FIAT system managed to control it and turn it into their benefit, now governments, corporations and institutions are buying it and soon we will observe the wash trading, buying and selling between themselves legally using the rules the system offers to manipulate and accumulate while the current "whales" reaching already their mid 40s and 50s will sell into FIAT large quantities of Bitcoin to retire comfortable, people tends to forget that there is a time factor.

Those in their 30s will probably build around it or go to real state and sit happy, but, Where are the values and the ideology Satoshi intended to push in the world? Doesn't seem it is in Bitcoin "hodlers" hands anymore. Very few real hard core libertarian believers left in the ecosystem.

If we go beyond that and we say, well, it could be adopted as currency in other countries besides El Salvador... Sure, but Why? What will be the benefit to that country unless they have a massive amount of Bitcoin already? It would not be fair for their citizens, basically, those institutions and governments that in few years will own the majority of the coins and the current wealthy Bitcoiners become the ones that can take advantage from that measure instead of the citizens of that country.

Countries would do well adding it to their reserves as they do with gold, but by no means it will be a P2P cash solution for the masses, nor it will help to solve the money problem.

Any options?

In my opinion is not that complicated, every nation could create a Bitcoin like currency with a cap of whatever it thinks it should be. Copying the Satoshi vision, nothing to do with the CBDC concept which is nothing but the same FIAT system with no cash.

That means that the coins should be capped at certain amount, Inmutable and Decentralized not controlled by the state and make it a legal tender with the regulation of the state equal to its current currency.

Technically is quite easy to implement, forking a privacy coin and making it more efficient to have instant payments as with Lightning Network will do the trick.

The effect of such measure will be a very strong currency that will benefit all their citizens equally. Sure, there is the current FIAT system with its tentacles everywhere, which needs to be transitioned and removed in parallel. Not a simple task, nor it will go down without a fight.

A fair launch of the token is required with no "genesis block", no "original address" (corruption) with a large percentage of the tokens. Nowadays, most states are corrupted and will most probably use the current currency printing machine to acquire as much as possible of the new currency making it a failed project from the start. Think about how much money the countries can print and buy Bitcoin with that money, think what they can do with it...

Regulation to avoid the governments from buying the tokens with printed money is required from the beginning.

Plausible, right?. The only needed action is to remove the corrupted and incompetent officials that are in the pockets of the nations landlords... Oh, but the landlords owns the judicial system and the military industrial complex so this seems to be a quite obvious and simple task but next to impossible to accomplish.

Baby steps?

We need legislation to separate the state from the private money. That alone will weaken the landlords over time and thus, little by little, their grip on the judicial system will perish and change can emerge with less opposition from the corrupted officials.

Is there a chance?

In my opinion, not in the short term.

The ones with political power and control over the world resources I call landlords, won't let go. Why will they?

Even in the miraculous scenario that few of those individuals or families decide to assist with the needed changes, others will take their place, therefore, I have no illusion it can be achieved rapidly or ever.

If you are very young, you still may be thinking that with few marches and protests the people can steer the direction of a nation, nothing more far from the truth... When it works it had been carefully planned and funded by a foreign country or nefarious group looking to change power in a nation to take advantage of its resources in one way or another and the naive youth is used to achieve the goal.

One possible scenario would be a sudden introduction of technologies that empower the individual to be free of the control of the system, the following three would be an excellent start:

1. Free energy (Tesla's dream...),
2. Free tech for the desalination of sea water,
3. Free access to atmospheric water devices for the production of drinking water from the humidity in the air.

But to believe that the current powers will not push back is naive. The most logical scenario is that they will make those technologies illegal and prosecute anyone sharing them or using them or tax them heavily as Spain did not long ago with the solar panels installed at home by individuals, surreal but it happened, it was called the "sun tax" implemented in October 2015 and removed in November 2018.

If you like my work and would like to support me:

IMO and experience, it is an exaggeration...

If all the fear mongering being pedaled by the cyber security enthusiasts and experts was true, oh well, with very few exceptions, we all will be drained of our funds in banks (most neither have a decent 2FA - still working with SMS for crying out-loud...), self custody wallets, etc... Even the Bitcoin blockchain encryption will be broken by "quantum computers"... oh and AI will be used by hackers to hack you as well... Just ignore the noise...

The truth is that basic IT hygiene is enough to keep the malware, viruses and therefore, the cyber criminals away.

And the tools they tell you that are not enough and therefore you are powerless actually are quite helpful, keep using them, firewalls, VPNs, TOR, Linux Whirpool, etc.

My suggestion, do your homework, acquiring cyber security skills needs reading, get on it, few tips:

a. Learn how to verify a software security key or SHA256 before running it in your laptop or mobile if an apk. If on Microsoft, if the software you want to install does not have a .msi version (already signed by Microsoft), the .exe extension file needs to be verified, learn how, this is paramount, no matter the application, same with Linux. If the app does not offer it, do not install it, contact the developer and demand it, if no dice, forget it, look for an alternative.

b. Use a VPN on your home router, yes, even if you acquire cyber security knowledge and apply it to your mobile and laptop, if you do not live alone, every other member of your family is a weak link that can affect you. Acquire a router that supports a VPN that does not require to know your identity to pay for the service and accepts Bitcoin as payment (otherwise do not use it, no matter how good you think it is, if free avoid, you are the product and therefore, you are better without one that with one free). As an additional measure, keep your laptop, PC and mobile with another VPN, a different service, you will be with a double VPN while at home and with one while in the road. In the past the throughput will be considerably reduced to a point of being too slow, nowadays, you will be fine.

c. Use a router with a decent firewall and advertising guard like features, Adguard or Pi-Hole (learn to configure and to add community supported lists) , that will keep your home browsing experience safer and faster.

d. If you do banking and Bitcoin with your mobile phone, consider having two mobiles, one left at home secured. Carry with you a mobile for your social needs and small payments in fiat or Bitcoin, if you loose your phone or you get robed, you will sleep better....

e. If you insist on using debit cards instead of credit cards, keep the account with the debit card limited to your needs when you go out. A bit of a pain but do not use your savings account, if you lose the wallet you are screwed and there is no recurse with a debit card.... (or use credit cards and you have the option to recover the funds in case is needed)

f. If you have stacked a considerable amount in Bitcoin and want to be sufficiently safe, consider an air gap seed signer, if you do not trust yourself, consider a service with no KYC, contrary to what many believe, there are some, recently I learn that CASA is one of them, probably there are others, do your homework. You keep one or two private keys and the company keeps another one, to remove the funds you need 2 of 3 and it has built in time locks you can set up.

g. Avoid Microsoft and Google and Apple clouds, those are honey pots often targeted, if they get hacked the companies most probably will neither inform the clients or if they do it would be much after the incident, use other private services highly encrypted end to end, preferably FOSS, and do not upload your data unencrypted, yes, encrypt it before uploading if it is valuable information, it is a backup of data and you want it safe, if it is not in your hands, best to encrypt it, even if the company claim it is E2E encrypted, you can't be sure....

Each person is different, you need to sleep good at night knowing your cyber security is sufficient and therefore your data and funds are safe.

Fix the Money, fix the World

Use Bitcoin, be Unconfiscatable

Use Nostr, be Uncensorable

#Bitcoin

#LN ⚡

#ARK ⚡